Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Russian Incursion in Syria
            Recently, two critical stories have been badgered into the American public on the twenty-four hour news cycle: Russian aggression and the Syria civil war.  To make these subjects easier for the American public to understand, Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to make them one story with his recent actions, increasing the number of Russian troops, supplies and military equipment going to his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad.  Although one could argue that Russian intervention would resolve this conflict, ending half a decade’s worth of bloodshed and heartache, one needs to look at who benefits in this scenario.
            Al-Assad has become infamous for being brutal and apathetic to civilian casualties throughout the course of this conflict, going so far as to use chemical weapons on his own people.  This is the regime that the Russians are arming.
            One could argue that a nation united behind al-Assad would lead to the removal of the extremist group, ISIS.  However, the type of weaponry entering Syria leads one to a different conclusion.  Russia has brought in tanks, aircraft and surface to air missiles.  While tanks and aircraft could be used to go on the offensive against ISIS, the last type of weapon going to the war-stricken nation should cause alarm.  If ISIS does not have access to aircraft, why would the Assad regime need surface to air missiles?  The most likely reason is that the Russians are bolstering Assad in the event that the United States or a Jordanian-led Arab taskforce imposes a no fly zone over Syria.
            What security advantages does Russia gain from its relationship with the Assad regime?  First, Russia is fearful of extremist gains in Syria, especially since they are dealing with extremist insurgencies in their Caucasus region.  Second, it hopes to maintain influence in the Middle East.  Currently, Assad’s Syria and Iran are the only nations in the region accepting of Russian influence.
            Although the actions of Russia in Syria will have a minimal effect at this point and are unlikely to sway the outcome of the civil war, the relationship between these nations should be closely watched, lest a trend develop.
            

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