Once again, President Trump is trying to back out of a vital deal that could hurt relations on the world stage. Were he to scrap the deal, he would not be helping America or its safety. This decision could severely damage our relationships with our European allies. That being said, there's an opportunity for China and Russia to become stronger in international affairs. If we back out, they'd be united together against the USA supporting a deal to slow development of a nuclear arms race near and within Iran. We'd become a global pariah being one of very few countries to disagree with this deal.
Western European companies could perhaps become willing beneficiaries to the Iran deal for which Iran has been seeking. President Hasan Rouhani and President Putin signed agreements to collaborate on energy deals valued at $30 billion. There are some valued at $20 billion that are on schedule this year all with Russian oil and gas companies.
China, alongside Russia, France, Germany, Britain, and the EU, is ready to take advantage of any Trump action withdrawing from the pact. "Reactivation of sanctions may cause Iran to export oil using the Chinese Yuan denominated contract, which launches on 18 January," Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst at SEB to OilPrice.com. "This may spark a move away from the present long-established US Dollar denominated oil trading regime."
Action as such is what China has been aiming for: a change in dominance of the power of the US dollar. If an opening like this were to arise, the Chinese would no doubt take advantage. At the very least, with oil prices again already well above $60 a barrel, any new sanctions on the sale of 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude oil that have just begun to hit world markets, is likely to raise the price of crude by at least $5 a barrel, according to Citigroup's global commodities unit.
The most immediate effect of any American withdrawal, or addition of broader sanctions by us, would be to give new ammunition to the already powerful mullahs in Iran. They place blame for recent demonstrations across the country at the feet of Western, Israeli and especially American intervention, with the need to be suppressed at all costs. Revolutionary Guard forces have ended the first round of protests that spread to 80+ cities/towns around the country and left 2 dozen people dead and almost 1,000 people arrested or jailed.
Any addition of sanctions could re-develop support for the return of democracy in Iran. There are still strong powers within Iran restless
to bring a swift end to the nuclear pact at any (financial) cost and begin to climb
toward creating a store of nuclear weapons. So the inclination of Iran and other
forces, led by Rouhani, to remain in the accord, could be tried by any
sanctions the US might reestablish now as a price for endorsing and holding the
agreement. Individuals and companies that might suddenly
find themselves on an even larger blacklist (that had been thinned out under
the original agreement) could only add their voices to the anti-agreement
forces. Thus creating new pressure for Iran itself to verify that these new
sanctions effectively solidify the agreement null and void.
In short, the only practical choice for Trump
is simply to choose the high road again this time around, with the sad
certainty that we'll simply revisit the question again three months from now.
https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Iran-Sanctions-Will-Help-Chinas-Petro-Yuan.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/petro-yuan-china-wants-to-dethrone-dollar-rmb-denominated-oil-contracts.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/11/us-president-trump-could-pull-out-of-iran-nuclear-deal.html
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