Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Black Gold and Texas Tea

Black Gold and Texas Tea
                Oil is and has been the new steel since the transition of the world into automation, it runs the world and keeps our economy properly lubricated.  Its economic, political, and geographical importance goes without being said, and as with any other major commodity its price has a direct correlation to the impact on the health of the global economy.  When prices are high markets slow down because consumers can’t afford it and vice versa when the prices are low.  As of today the price for US crude is $45.40, and $48.09 for Brent crude, both however are far down from where they were a year ago.  This is a problematic situation although cheap oil is ideal for consumers it is quite problematic for any oil exporting nation.   This slump in oil prices is a growing problem that is estimated could last anywhere from 5 to 15 years, and it must be met swiftly by all trading nations if it is to be relieved.
                You can have too much of a good think, as each day passes billions of dollars are being lost by both U.S. companies and foreign governments.  Domestically this drastic fall in oil prices by approximately 60% has led to sky falling stock prices, mass layoffs, and a significant decline in manufacturing.  An industry leading example is Caterpillar whose stock has fallen about 30% since December and who has relied heavily on the sale of new oil derricks in North Dakota.  That is however one of many companies who have been affected by the oil slump, abroad organizations like OPEC continue to make the situation worse.  In nations like Russia, Venezuela, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia their governments have had to for the first time in decades prepared to cut spending and are issuing bonds to cover shortcomings in this year’s budget.  Some countries like Saudi Arabia are far better off financially than poor nations such as Venezuela of which relies on oil and gas to make up 25% of their annual GDP.  Which makes this an international problem that goes beyond a mere U.S. interest, if allowed to continue the concern is not with rich countries like Canada, Saudi Arabia, or the U.S. rather nations that are politically fragmented.  Those like Venezuela, Iraq, or the Republic of the Congo are at risk unless actions are taken in this global theater.
                The problem here primarily resides with the Organizations of the Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC for short whom have artificially kept the already deflated oil prices low in an attempt to reduce the influence of a recent rise in the US oil market. This is done by the refusal across the board of OPEC members led by Saudi Arabia to reduce the output of crude into the global market place.  A reversal of that order would allow for a decrease in the supply of crude oil until such time that it reaches equilibrium with demand at a much more favorable price.  And, although this could cause oil exporters to lose market shares this is a greater problem beyond the bottom line.  If allowed to continue this slump will pose a significant threat to the whole of the global economy, impacting poor oil exporting nations and even rich oil dependent nations.  Any other reasonable alternative will become that of a tariff war for which no one nation wins and would be a step backwards for global trade.  


---Nathaniel Dust---

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