Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Syria, Proxy War Ahead?

                Proxy War in Syria?

                As many of us in the Political Science community are aware, there has been a civil war ongoing in Syria since 2011.  At first there were two clear sides to the war.  The Syrian side that supported the Assad government was one.  The second was the rebels that opposed the government that was currently in place.  This turned into a sort of debacle early on.  The United States did not seem to want to get too involved.  Rightly so many people might say.  We were just getting ourselves out of the Iraq conflict and trying to bring the actions in Afghanistan to a close as well. 
            Things got worse in Syria however.  ISIS was formed, taking parts of northern Syria and Iraq as part of its territory.  The government in Syria began using chemical weapons against its own civilians, killing a lot of people.  It became an international political nightmare.  The United States has relatively been pretty hands off in its approach to the situation. 
            The level of aid that we have been involved with has been quite low considering what the options are that are on the table.   The United States could have put boots on the ground.  Although, this would not have gone over very well with the public opinion of the people of the United States.  As we have discussed, public opinion does seem to affect policy to some extent.  Public opinion is very important when you bring a war or military conflict involving the use of United States soldiers.  In turn, the United States sent some weapons to the rebel forces and has conducted some air raids.
            Fast forward to today, Russia has now put its hand into the Syrian cookie jar.  Russia has a naval base located in Syria.  This is important for Russia because they do not have many military bases outside of Russia.  Therefore, it is in their best interest to keep a Russian sympathetic government in place in Syria so as to maintain their global reach in the Middle East.  The reason that Russia says it is there is to aid in eliminating ISIS from the Middle East.  As we have heard reports of the last couple weeks though is that Russia has been bombing the rebel forces that oppose the Assad lead government.
            So you can imagine the debacle that is now forming.  The United States on one side supporting the rebels who oppose the current government.  Russia on the other hand, is supporting the Syrian government.  So now we have these two global super powers not directly battling each other, but indirectly conducting military actions against the other. 
            I see this as a means of going backwards from the progress that we have worked so hard to create.  Russia and the United States have not always gotten along.  To be blunt, they have a long history of being arch rivals.  The Soviet Union collapsed and that relationship has gotten better from where it used to be.  However, under Putin, the tensions have slowly begun to rise between these two great nations.  I get the sense that this is the start of a new cold war all over again between the United States and Russia.  The difference this time, is that China is now entering the mix as an up-and-coming global super power.  We currently are trying to establish a working relationship with the Chinese.  This all remains to be seen however.

            Syria, the next battle ground of the second cold war?  The answer to this question will come over the next weeks, months, and years.  I do not think that we will see this fully come to blossom for many years to come.  Russia continually goes unchecked for all of its aggression.  I believe that there must be a unanimous force of global support for the opposition to the actions taken by Russia.  Right now, we do not see many countries that want to take the Russian monster head on.  When is enough, enough?  The world is on the teetering balance of things getting really nasty.  I think that is why Obama is pulling back a lot support in Syria because he is trying to prevent it blowing up into something bigger.  All in all though, this story is not yet over.

Zackary Ledlow

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